I've been reading the suddenly retro-popular The Sovereign Individual (it's from 1999) based on multiple recommendations (verdict: mixed). In it I came across an Arthur C. Clarke idea, which I'm surprised I hadn't encountered already, that instantly made my top-5 list of wise ideas about the future. Clarke noted that there are two "hazards of forecasting": failure of nerve, and failure of imagination, and observed that the former was more common. As my 2x2 below suggests, it might have something to do with the fact that serious futurists, at least in the West, seem to lean politically left as a group, which makes them arguably more prone to failure of nerve than imagination.
Good Forecasting Takes Strong Nerves
Good Forecasting Takes Strong Nerves
Good Forecasting Takes Strong Nerves
I've been reading the suddenly retro-popular The Sovereign Individual (it's from 1999) based on multiple recommendations (verdict: mixed). In it I came across an Arthur C. Clarke idea, which I'm surprised I hadn't encountered already, that instantly made my top-5 list of wise ideas about the future. Clarke noted that there are two "hazards of forecasting": failure of nerve, and failure of imagination, and observed that the former was more common. As my 2x2 below suggests, it might have something to do with the fact that serious futurists, at least in the West, seem to lean politically left as a group, which makes them arguably more prone to failure of nerve than imagination.