Betting the Spread on Inexorables

It’s been quite a week. In the US, the healthcare bill that ‘experts’ had written off just a few weeks ago managed to squeak through the House of Representatives after all. In France, Marine Le Pen has made it to the runoffs, and is currently polling at 38% versus Macron’s 62%. I guess we’ll know if the pollsters have any clue what they’re talking about in a few days. On another front, the ether crypotocurrency crossed $100 for the first time in what appears to be a broad trend buoying up the cryptocurrency markets (old man bitcoin hit $1700, and is hovering around $1500 as I write this, while ether seems to be hanging on precariously around $90). Back in August 2014, during the ether genesis sale, when I bought a small amount (sadly not enough to be a life-changer), it seemed like yet another joke. Most of us in the group that was chatting about it at the time and bought small amounts were treating it primarily as curiosity about the technology rather than a reasoned speculative investment. I’ll give myself zero credit for having made a ‘wise’ investment. If I come out on top on ether, it’ll be largely dumb luck combined with being sufficiently herd-minded around more plugged-in people. It was also around the same time that the alt-right hit my radar, and as with ether, I took it seriously, but not seriously enough. I lost a bet with a friend about if/when/how strongly the alt-right would influence mainstream politics.

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